I like making predictions. I don’t much care if I’m wrong, it’s not as if my life or livelihood (in this context) depends on it. I look at past words and actions, current trends, and make opinions and predictions on possible future strategies and outcomes. Unless I predict candy-filled skies and rivers of chocolate, half of you are not going to like these opinions. As always, I don’t care about, or need, anyone’s approval or high rating. If you have a constructive disagreement, great, have at it. But if you’re just another hater and this doesn’t fit your worldview, pound sand and go scream in your own blog.
I don’t pay or subscribe to any commentator or personality. I didn’t go to one of those websites that bends news or transcripts to fit their (or their readers) political leanings. Much of what I comment on is bumped into accidentally, something that catches my attention. I don’t need someone else’s talking points, I have enough of my own. Today it’s the political fallout of the Iraq War.
For months now we’ve been hearing about the September Iraq report from General Petraeus. It appears that the report will be positive on the situation over there. By many accounts, including anti-war correspondents, things, while not perfect, are trending in the right direction. The reaction from our leaders sure could be interesting.
On the one side you have the “stay the course” people, and while some have been swaying, they should be content with the report. I expect some “We told you so’s” and the historical context of the number of casualties. On the other side, it’s all over the map and it could go a couple of different ways.
Let’s start with the negative approach: Total character assassination of Petraeus including lack of credibility, he’s a liar, he’s a Bush hack, not telling the whole story, etc. This should come from the same quarter that calls our soldiers criminals, thugs, mercenaries, baby killers, runners of gulags, and the comparisons to Nazi Germany. You know, the same ones who are against the war yet support the troops? (No one’s buying that line anymore, by the way)
Speaking of which brings up a local angle on this, State Senator Brandon Shaffers votes on the war. He not only voted twice for SJM07-002 “Memorializing Congress and the president to stop the escalation of the war in Iraq”, he was also a co-sponsor. He then voted for, and co-sponsored SJR07-022 “Concerning an expression of support for the United States military personnel in Iraq.” Guess the winds (from Ken Gordon’s office) were blowing differently that day. Re-election time is November ’08 for him, watch carefully how this “tow the party line” type of representative zigzags.
The group that is anti any war should be consistent: no matter how things are going, we shouldn’t have gone there in the first place and need to get out. A stand on principal, I can accept that, but they usually can’t help themselves and delve into the same shrill nuttiness. I have noticed our local 3 marchers have taken down from their website the slanderous remarks toward some alleged troop misdeeds. I’m not sure if these are the same troops that were recently cleared of these charges, but it is telling how quickly this group will attack the military. Then again, not all military members are of one party affiliation, now are they?
In Part 2, we’ll look at the implications of this on “Election ’08”. Speaking of predictions, in addition to calling every state but one (damn you Wisconsin!) in the ’04 election, prior to the ’06 midterm elections I predicted if one party controls both houses of Congress between ’06 and ’08, whichever party it is, that party will lose the presidential election of ’08. Did I expect Congress’s poll numbers below the President’s this soon, or ever? No. Did I expect a possible positive Iraq report? No. Could I still be wrong? Sure, but these things don’t point that way.